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Growing up in North Richmond, California, Denny Khamphanthong didn鈥檛 think much of the siren that wailed once a month, every first Wednesday at 11 a.m. The alarm is a test of the community鈥檚 emergency warning system, which has alerted residents to numerous incidents over the years at the nearby Chevron oil refinery. One accident there鈥斺�攕ent a cloud of black smoke billowing over San Francisco Bay and left thousands of local residents struggling to breathe.

Now, when Khamphanthong explains the sound to his young nieces, he sees the fear in their eyes. 鈥淚 forget that this isn鈥檛 normal,鈥� he says. Nor is the fact that Khamphanthong and most of his childhood friends carried inhalers. Richmond, a diverse, industrial city where housing prices and incomes have lagged behind its Bay Area neighbors, has and some of the in California.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of beautiful things that happen out of [Richmond],鈥� says Khamphanthong, a community organizer with the whose family emigrated from Laos in the 1980s. 鈥淏ut at the same time, when you look at the reality of it, it is sad.鈥�

Pollution, poverty, and race in many other disadvantaged communities across California鈥攁nd the country鈥攁nd some argue that the state鈥檚 climate policies haven鈥檛 helped. While California has already by 13% since their peak in 2004, many residents still suffer from high levels of air pollution鈥攎uch of it produced by fossil fuels.

In particular, controversy has dogged California鈥檚 , which took effect in 2013 and regulates roughly 450 entities accounting for 85% of California鈥檚 emissions. The system works by setting a limit on the total amount of greenhouse gases released by refineries, power plants, and other large emitters, and requires polluters to obtain permits to cover their share. The overall 鈥渃ap鈥� lowers every year, forcing polluters to reduce their emissions or purchase allowances from others who do.  

Economists, environmentalists, and policymakers鈥攎any of them White鈥攖out as a cost-effective way to cut emissions while generating money for other climate initiatives. But environmental justice activists say the program has not served California鈥檚 disadvantaged communities, and particularly communities of color, where many facilities operate. In their eyes, it doesn鈥檛 do enough to address climate change and allows emitters to continue polluting the air in the meantime.

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For example, state records suggest that the Chevron Richmond Refinery, one of California鈥檚 largest emitters, more greenhouse gases in 2017 and 2018鈥攖he last years for which data are publicly available鈥攖han it has since 2008. And in several recent years, it emitted as much or more of . It has also dramatically increased the flared off as waste鈥攁nother source of. (Representatives from Chevron said that flaring was related to a new hydrogen plant coming online, and that the refinery has made significant investments in reducing emissions of air pollutants over the past 40 years.)

To many, cap and trade highlights a contradiction. 鈥淵ou鈥檙e hearing all this great stuff about how amazing your governor and your state is on climate leadership,鈥� says Lucas Zucker, policy and communications director at the . But 鈥渋t doesn鈥檛 feel like anything is changing.鈥�

As the United States reckons with its long legacy of racial injustice and the increasingly devastating consequences of climate change, questions about the efficacy and fairness of cap and trade have taken on greater urgency than ever. But seven years on, researchers, regulators, and activists are still arguing about how California鈥檚 most famous climate policy has affected its most vulnerable residents鈥攁nd how to do better.

The Air

Climate change is usually seen as a global problem. But its effects are profoundly local, and often refract through long-standing patterns of inequality and racism.

In the U.S. and elsewhere, low-income residents and people of color of the climate burden. They from , floods, and other climate-related impacts. And they have suffered from the harmful pollutants produced by using fossil fuels.

These pollutants, which include particulate matter, nitrogen and sulfur oxides, and toxic substances like benzene, have been linked to health problems ranging from respiratory disorders to reproductive problems to cancer. And show that and tend to concentrate in disadvantaged communities.

鈥淢e and my five cousins, we all have asthma,鈥� says Abe Francis, 15, of Sacramento. When Francis was young, doctors prescribed him medication because they feared he might stop breathing in his sleep. He still struggles to catch his breath when he plays basketball at the park. 鈥淚t鈥檚 incredibly scary for me,鈥� says Francis, who is African American.

According to , the system the state uses to identify at-risk populations, his neighborhood falls in the highest fifth of pollution-affected communities in California. It ranks in the 94^th percentile for poverty and roughly 90% of residents are people of color.

In Wilmington, a predominantly Latino community in south Los Angeles, Dulce Altamirano says her children and grandchildren suffer from headaches, rashes, nosebleeds, and respiratory problems caused by pollution. 鈥淭he air quality is very bad,鈥� 45-year-old Altamirano says in Spanish, with a sigh. 鈥淚 personally have many problems with breathing, with my throat. 鈥� There have been times when my husband wanted to call the paramedics.鈥� The city sits among numerous refineries, oil wells and storage facilities, shipping ports, and high-traffic roads, and some neighborhoods rank in the of CalEnviroScreen scores.

Climate policies present an opportunity to because greenhouse gases and harmful air pollutants often come from the same sources, like industrial smokestacks and vehicle tailpipes. In fact, when California passed its 鈥攚hich directed the state to cut greenhouse gas emissions down to 1990 levels by 2020鈥� that it would save thousands of lives through improved air quality alone.

But environmental justice advocates grew concerned that these benefits would not be equally distributed when the decided to adopt a cap-and-trade program as part of its strategy to implement the law.

CARB turned to cap and trade in part because it had broad support from both environmental groups and industry players, and was already in use by and the to tackle greenhouse gases. (In 2014, Quebec joined California鈥檚 market and several other and have considered or adopted their own versions in recent years.) However, community activists worried that the system would allow companies to find ways to keep emitting, particularly in disadvantaged neighborhoods.

鈥淎nytime to you have that kind of pay-to-pollute scheme, the communities that already were being sacrificed鈥攖hat becomes a business decision,鈥� Zucker says. And some evidence suggests that these fears have come true.

A led by , now at the University of California, Los Angeles, found that more than half of the facilities covered under cap and trade actually increased their in-state emissions during the first three years of the program. These facilities were also more likely to be located in disadvantaged communities. (In-state emissions were offset by purchasing cleaner power and carbon credits from other projects that reduced emissions elsewhere.)

A by the environmental group Food and Water Watch found similar results for the East Coast鈥檚 Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative鈥攁 cap-and-trade program that regulates the power sector.

However, by economists at the University of California, Santa Barbara, paints a slightly brighter picture in California. The researchers used a model to simulate how pollution spreads in the atmosphere to study how emissions translate to exposure. Like others, they found glaring disparities between disadvantaged communities and their Whiter, more prosperous neighbors. But while this so-called environmental justice gap increased in the years before cap and trade took effect, it fell by 20% to 30% afterwards in the areas where facilities were covered by the program.

The California studies, which took different approaches, do not offer a clear answer about whether cap and trade has helped or harmed disadvantaged communities in the state. Both had to wrestle with outside factors that affected emissions, such as the Great Recession and California鈥檚 other climate policies. But activists say that another even more important question has mostly gone unasked: What would have happened if California had adopted a different policy altogether?

Many feel that their communities would have seen greater progress if the state had regulated emitters directly, says . She grew up in the town of Oildale鈥攊n a major oil-producing region in California鈥檚 Central Valley鈥攁nd previously served as policy and political director for the . In March, Valenzuela was elected to Sacramento’s City Council District 4, representing midtown and downtown Sacramento and South Land Park.

In recent years, state regulators have tried to tackle inequalities in air quality. But Valenzuela says that officials have leaned on cap and trade instead of embracing more aggressive climate policies鈥攐ften at the expense of vulnerable communities. 鈥淚t鈥檚 been 14 years, and we鈥檝e still never had a meaningful discussion about reducing our dependence on fossil fuels.鈥�

The Money

By the time California鈥檚 cap-and-trade program came up for renewal in 2017, environmental justice advocates had united against it. They felt ignored by state officials and abandoned by mainstream environmental groups. The , which extended the program until 2030, only compounded their sense of betrayal: among other provisions, it exempted many polluting facilities from extra regulation by local air districts.

This souring of relationships was particularly tragic given that many saw California鈥檚 as an explicit effort to advance environmental justice. It was 鈥渋ntegral to the design,鈥� says , a social entrepreneur and environmental justice advocate who helped shape the bill when he was the executive director of Redefining Progress, a sustainability think tank.

The law directed state officials to consider the impacts of climate policies on 鈥渃ommunities that are already adversely impacted by air pollution.鈥� It also mandated that the state convene an to oversee its climate efforts. Even the cap-and-trade program, while far from perfect, had equitable ambitions, Gelobter says.

He and other economists note that traditional environmental regulations often raise the cost of goods and services, which disproportionately harms low-income people. And the extra money that consumers pay goes into the pockets of polluters, Gelobter says. Thus, to him, the most just climate policies are those that impose a price on carbon and use the revenue to blunt the economic blow on the most vulnerable members of society. And California has done exactly that.

Every quarter, the state auctions off emissions allowances to polluters (some are also distributed directly to industries) and by law, 35% of the money raised must be spent in disadvantaged communities. In practice, however, the state has delegated far more鈥攁lmost 60%, or roughly in total since the first funds were released in 2014.

, a member of the California Air Resources Board, sees this as a powerful counterpoint to critiques that cap and trade is unjust. 鈥淗ow we invest our resources is really a reflection of our priorities,鈥� says Serna, who is also a Sacramento County supervisor.

Some cap-and-trade revenue goes , to offset the increased cost of electricity and natural gas caused by the state鈥檚 climate initiatives. The goes toward projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions or improve water quality. In disadvantaged neighborhoods, that might mean expanding public transit, increasing access to renewable energy, and building efficient, affordable housing.

Some feel uncomfortable about the source of these funds, because they often come at a cost to community health. 鈥淲e would prefer it if there was no money coming from the cap-and-trade system because there was no pollution coming from our economy,鈥� says Alvaro Sanchez, director of environmental equity at the nonprofit . But from an investment point of view, he says, 鈥渢he money picture feels fairly positive.鈥�

In the San Joaquin valley, cap-and-trade funds have helped low-income residents purchase clean cars. Most of the valley ranks in the of CalEnviroScreen scores and the region has the . Bakersfield in particulate pollution, and Fresno ranks second. But here, the leading culprits are 鈥攏ot the large industrial facilities covered under cap and trade. (The program regulates transportation indirectly by forcing fuel distributors to buy emission allowances.)

Under an initiative called , residents can get up to $9,500 to trade in their old car for a hybrid or electric vehicle. So far, Drive Clean has replaced 3,000 cars and saved customers hundreds of dollars a month in gas and maintenance costs, says Tom Knox, the executive director of , which runs the program.

One of those vehicles went to Sokunrith Nop, who emigrated to the U.S. from Cambodia 41 years ago and now lives in Stockton. He replaced his 1995 Honda Civic with a fully electric 2017 Fiat 500e. 鈥淚 love it. It suits me perfectly,鈥� says Nop, who needed something reliable to drive his child to school.

He likes saving money on gas. And he wants to help the environment. 鈥淓verybody should drive a car like that where we don鈥檛 pollute,鈥� Nop says. He only wishes the program could help more people like him. 鈥淭hose cars are expensive.鈥�

The Rub

Cap and trade isn鈥檛 the only way to put a price on carbon, and it鈥檚 not the only one that . Such issues arise whenever policies rely on market forces to drive down emissions鈥攂ecause markets are famously unconcerned with equity. 鈥淚t鈥檚 all about finding efficiencies,鈥� says , an economist at UCSB and a co-author of the study on the environmental justice gap.

Still, activists and researchers have proposed numerous ways to make California鈥檚 program fairer. For instance, regulators could require that emissions in disadvantaged communities decline at least at the same rate as the overall cap, rather than setting a statewide goal, says , an economist at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Officials could also impose geographic restrictions on trading to ensure that the pollution benefits accrue more locally, or force emitters to go through local air permitting processes.

California鈥檚 Environmental Justice Advisory Committee has repeatedly to reduce the number of available allowances and do away with offsets鈥攁 that allows polluters to buy added emissions credits from outside projects that reduce carbon emissions, like , often in other states.

, a community organizer for in Wilmington, says that she struggles to explain the concept of offsets to residents breathing unhealthy air. 鈥淭he refinery gets credit, but in Wilmington, they haven鈥檛 reduced anything,鈥� she says. (CARB has not banned offsets, however, starting in 2021, companies won鈥檛 be able to use as many, and at least half must benefit the state.)

Some say that California鈥檚 program would produce more equitable results if it had a more ambitious emissions target, and thus, higher carbon prices. (By the state鈥檚 , cap and trade deserves little credit for its progress so far.) Others say that it has received too much attention. , a climate policy expert at Stanford University, argues that cap and trade 鈥渃laims to be able to do anything you want 鈥� while the politics frustrate any efforts to dial it up to do that.鈥�

Stanley Young, director of communications at CARB, says that cap and trade serves as a backstop for the state鈥檚 other climate policies, like efforts to increase renewable energy use and clean up traffic pollution. And he says that it works as advertised. It helps lower greenhouse gas emissions and forces companies to factor in the cost of carbon. 

The program raises money too, and California has made good on its obligation to invest the resulting funds in hard-hit communities, but some say it could still do better. Certain programs that ostensibly benefit disadvantaged communities may not actually do so; for example, by Cushing and others found that some of the state鈥檚 clean vehicle rebate programs serve more well-off Californians than low-income residents.

Sanchez, of the Greenlining Institute, says that the most disadvantaged communities often lack the means to access cap-and-trade revenue. And when they do, state agencies are sometimes reluctant to give control to community-based organizations, says Simeon Gant, executive director of , a workforce training program in Sacramento whose students include teenager Abe Francis. As a result, he says, 鈥渢hey never get to the people they鈥檙e targeting.鈥�

Indeed, many Californians have never heard of cap and trade and remain unaware that it produces money for their benefit. Khamphanthong and others say the state should do a better job of engaging with community members to figure out what they need most. In Richmond, Khamphanthong would like to see support for green jobs that treat employees well and benefit the community. 鈥淲hy not just work with us to figure out a solution?鈥� he asks.

The Future

In recent months, California鈥檚 cap-and-trade program has encountered problems. At the beginning of the pandemic, the brought in a fraction of the expected revenue. And over the summer, the head of California鈥檚 Environmental Protection Agency, which oversees CARB, stating that he would work with the board to reevaluate the state鈥檚 dependence on cap and trade going forward.

Whatever California decides, it has to put equity first, says of Veritable Good, a consulting firm that specializes in environmental justice. 鈥淚f that is not the central lens through which you are developing solutions, then those communities will always be left out,鈥� she says.

New York may offer an interesting model. Last year, activists celebrated the passage of a that sets even more aggressive emissions reductions goals than California. Environmental justice groups championed the bill, and they are hopeful that the state will steer clear of cap-and-trade policies (they have long fought the East Coast鈥檚 regional market). Instead, activists support imposing a polluter fee to raise money, on top of strict mandates to cut emissions.

Back in California, CARB passed 鈥斺�渁lmost a constitution,鈥� says Serna鈥攔eaffirming its commitment to social and racial justice in October. 鈥淚 have every expectation that that will eventually find its place into everything that we continue to do at CARB,鈥� he says, including managing cap and trade. (In , Black employees at CARB wrote an to address concerns about systemic racism within agency culture.)

The state has already taken steps to address air pollution in disadvantaged communities, including issuing 鈥攁 major contributor. After Abe Francis participated in a recent CARB panel on environmental justice, the agency offered to install at his home as part of a pilot program. Francis said they have already helped his family members stay safe on unhealthy days.

The state has also begun implementing , passed alongside the cap-and-trade extension, that creates a for tackling harmful emissions in the most affected neighborhoods. Along with Richmond, one of the first cities to participate is Wilmington, together with neighboring Carson and West Long Beach. After a long negotiation among community members, local officials, and industry representatives, refinery managers agreed to cut emissions of several key pollutants by 50% by 2030. The , released last year, also includes provisions to reduce pollution from traffic and oil wells.

Rivera, the community organizer, says the refinery agreement represents a victory鈥攁lbeit hard-won and too late for many. But Altamirano, the Wilmington resident who served as a member of the community steering committee in the negotiations, isn鈥檛 quite as hopeful.

She lives close enough to a refinery to hear valves pop open and to smell the noxious fumes that seep out. Sometimes, flares illuminate the night sky above her house. And she says she鈥檚 still waiting to see change.

鈥淪olo hablan, pero no se hace nada,鈥� she says. 鈥淛ust talking and then doing nothing.鈥�

This report was made possible in part by the Fund for Environmental Journalism of the .

CORRECTION: This article was updated at 8:37 a.m. PT on November 23, 2020 to clarify an erroneous implication that Stanley Young said that the cap-and-trade program raises money. He said that it puts a price on carbon. Read our corrections policy here.